CIVICUS speaks about the challenges of Venezuela’s upcoming presidential election and the recent selection of an opposition candidate with Guillermo Aveledo, Dean of Legal and Political Studies at the Metropolitan University of Caracas.
Who is Edmundo González, and how did he become the opposition candidate?
Edmundo González is a career diplomat who trained as an internationalist and served as a public official since his youth. He entered the diplomatic service in the 1970s and rose through the ranks to become an ambassador during the first governments of Hugo Chávez. After retiring from the Foreign Ministry due to Chávez’s authoritarian direction, he focused on training professionals in international relations and became involved with pro-democracy forces. He joined the Democratic Unity Roundtable (Mesa de la Unidad Democrática), an alliance of several parties. He headed its board and eventually became key in keeping the opposition on the ballot, enabling it to fulfil legal requirements to compete in the elections.
His leadership was to some extent accidental. It was during the nomination process that he came to be perceived as the most suitable figure to represent the entire opposition. This perception was based on his willingness to take on the role at personal risk and the fact he was accepted by the whole array of opposition forces due to his seriousness and moderation.
Since he was officially appointed as the candidate of the opposition's Unitary Platform on 19 April, Gonzalez has been careful in playing this role. He has already launched his campaign, with all the limitations this entails in a political system such as Venezuela's. Nevertheless, his candidacy brings hope for a democratic transition.
Why was María Corina Machado disqualified from running?
The election takes place in the context of a political system that is neither open nor pluralistic. The government is forced to call on the public to vote but has become increasingly afraid of losing power, as the system shifted from a traditional party democracy towards a democracy based on the charismatic leadership of Hugo Chávez, and then on to an authoritarian regime under Nicolás Maduro.
Machado was elected by a big margin as the Unitary Platform’s presidential candidate in primaries held in October 2023, but was later disqualified from holding public office for 15 years on politically motivated corruption charges. Machado is highly popular, advocates for political and economic freedoms and has taken a more confrontational stance towards the government. In recent years she has been critical of electoral participation, although we must recognise that before becoming fully involved in politics she founded an organisation dedicated to promoting participation in elections. Because of her differences with the traditional opposition, she has been labelled as ‘radical’.
What would need to happen for elections to be reasonably free and competitive?
Many changes would be necessary to meet international standards for free and competitive elections. Observation should be allowed and the security of opposition monitors and independent observers should be guaranteed during the electoral process. Greater scrutiny of counting should also be facilitated.
The Venezuelan electoral system has additional limitations, including a backlog in voter registration and obstacles to the participation of Venezuelans living abroad, who number over seven million. In addition, electoral centres have been established that are under the control of parastatal groups. These restrictions are characteristic of authoritarian regimes and hinder political change.
It would be desirable to reduce the presence of state and parastatal organisations in elections to prevent their undue influence on voters. And when I say state organisations, I mean groups affiliated with the ruling party, which are often confused with the state and exert pressure on voters. These are changes that could be implemented quickly, even though reforms to the electoral law are also needed that require more time to implement.
Would it be possible to achieve a democratic transition through elections?
Strong efforts are needed to push for a political transition in Venezuela. It is key to understand that an election wouldn’t mark the end of a transition, but a step in a longer process of political change. While giving the government credit for allowing González’s candidacy, we must also remain cautious until we can ascertain the true impact of this development.
While some parts of the government might tolerate moderate candidates such as Gonzalez, others will strongly oppose them. Divisions in the government offer an opportunity. It is important to take advantage of the democratic leanings of some elements of the ruling party.
Both the opposition and the government must act with political wisdom, on the basis of acknowledging that a shift towards a more representative government is in the interests of all Venezuelans, including those currently in power.
It is crucial to maintain the belief that Venezuela can become a democracy again. Foreign powers interested in democracy in Venezuela must have confidence in the country's capacity for democracy and not be swayed by prejudices about it being part of Latin America or its political past. Venezuelans have a deep-rooted democratic culture and should be allowed to express themselves.
Civic space in Venezuela is rated ‘closed’ by the CIVICUS Monitor.
Follow @GTAveledo on Twitter.