A Place for Fans to Gather and Discuss All Things Paul Thomas Anderson.
BC Project
Informations are deeply scarce, but it looks like this might be Anderson's biggest and most commercial film of his career??
A satire with Sci-Fi elements? I'm elated by the prospect.
What numbers do you hope it can reach??
DiCaprio may be the biggest movie star today, alongside Cruise, and his draw may be enough to turn it to an unprecedented blockbuster.
His track record in successful traditional theatrical features in these last 14 years is staggering:
Shutter Island (294 Million)
Inception (839 Million)
J. Edgar (85 Million)
Django Unchained (426 Million)
The Great Gatsby (353 Million)
The Wolf Of Wall Street (406 Million)
The Revenant (533 Million)
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (377 Million)
[Killers Of The Flower Moon (157 Million)] *
*Killers Of The Flower Moon though was a "hybrid" streaming movie that was available only after one month from its release on Apple, and still managed to do 157 Million worldwide on theaters, despite being a slowburn 3,5 hour movie about an horrifically heavy subject matter with a vile, dumb, uncharismatic, spineless, gullible character as the main lead, and despite being released during the actors's strike, so with ZERO promotion from the cast, no press-tour, no special roundtables, or important cover magazines, and no red carpet or premieres with the actors's presence.
No other actor in the world would have reached those numbers for a film like KOTFM despite all these concomitant limitations.]
This is an average of 350-400 Million per film.
I think if it gets supported by critics raves, i can see it doing OUATIH-type numbers so around 380-400 Million.
And if, big if, it's truly something incredible and really beloved by critics, general public and industry people, even more, 500-600 Million, why not?
You would have never expected a film like The Revenant to totalize over 500 Million, and that's because of DiCaprio's presence.
Even Oppenheimer, a 3 hour film about physicists talking about quantum physics, defied expectations with 975 Million, who knows what could happen??
This could be PTA's unique chance to break through the mainstream in a huge unprecedented way.
Thoughts?
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This was an eye-opening breakdown. I didn’t realize some of these films pulled these numbers.
sorry to ask this again, but does anyone know if this film is on hold for some reason? What happened to those people who knew people in production and had updates? Both Teyana and Leo were in NYC this week. A break in filming around Easter made sense, but is it normal for big films to halt production for weeks?
I heard that there was a casting call for extras for scenes shooting in a SoCal location this week, with more planned in a different location in the next week or two. Don't think Leo or Teyana were involved. And separately, someone else who has had seemingly good info on this project in the past has claimed they've done a lot of secret shooting. And then you have World of Reel (not always reliable) saying they're about to ramp back up into full production very soon. Whatever the truth is, it doesn't seem like the pause is cause for concern, though we can't know for sure.
Thank you for the intel! that’s great to hear. I wasnt sure if breaks like that are common, or if this is all residual effects from the strikes, or something else entirely.
I'd love to see PTA actually make money and it's fun to imagine what he could do for his next film if he had financial success.
Seeing him finally break into a mainstream conversation would be incredibly well deserved.
I do think your optimism is warranted, and I really think this could be a huge breakout moment for PTA. That said, let me present the "glass half empty" perspective, via The Curious Case of Adam Sandler...
The Wedding Singer (123 Million)
The Waterboy (190 Million)
Big Daddy (235 Million)
Little Nicky (58 Million)
Mr. Deeds (171 Million)
Anger Management (196 Million)
50 First Dates (199 Million)
Spanglish (55 Million)
The Longest Yard (192 Million)
The years surrounding the release of PDL, Sandler was averaging approximately 160 Million per picture, and PDL pulled in 25 Million. So, if PTA has roughly the same impact on Leo's draw, we can expect The 2025 Release to gross somewhere in 60-70 Million zone. Not great! But, like I said, this is an intentionally pessimistic perspective. The point I'm getting at is this: setting a baseline box office expectation of 350-400 million, that seems extremely optimistic. If I was given the choice between two bets... the film grosses over 200 million, or it grosses under 200 million... I'd take the under every day of the week. That could change, as details emerge regarding what the film is about, etc. To me the silver lining of my cloudy forecast is... if it grosses 150 Million and gets great critical buzz and a bunch of Oscar nominations... that's a huge fucking success! I All that said, I would love for him to massively exceed my expectations, and I truly hope you're predictions prove me wrong, but that's where my head is at at the moment....
That’s a fair take. The only caveat to using Sandler’s numbers is that, and correct me if I’m wrong as I was a child when PDL came out, Sandler’s brand was exclusively dumb comedies at the time so an arthouse romcom was a stark standout from his usual, whereas Leo’s stardom is entirely underlined by him starring in prestigious films ranging from comedies, to drama, to action. Even with him starring in a PTA picture, I’d hope his versatility would be enough to not confuse audiences the same way PDL did with Sandler fans and make them wanna come out and see it still, so long as the advertisement doesn’t throw them off.
Great point. Based on reading/watching lots of PTA interviews from around that time, I do get the impression that he was attempting to make something that was legit tapping into Sandler’s “manchild” superstar energy. Like I think he thought he had a potential hit on his hands? And while PDL does allow Sandler to be Sandler, … prestige flicks, even those that riff on his superstar persona, have never proven to be reliable hits for the Sandman. Whereas Leo’s whole schtick is making it rain with prestige pictures. So ya Leo feels like a more natural “box office juggernaut” for PTA to pair with and find success.
This is more just general thoughts based on what others have written. I think Licorice Pizza was a miss for lots of reasons, but the loose shooting/production style he employed did seem to result in a warmer film that more easily connected with people than Phantom Thread, Inherent Vice, or even The Master… which all have a certain distance/coldness. And the sequence that prominently featured a real deal movie star (Bradley Cooper) was the kind of bravura and kinetic ENTERTAINMENT that he imo transitioned away from after the early career highs of Boogie Nights and Magnolia. I found myself wondering if Licorice Pizza would’ve made more of an impact its stars weren’t total nobodies? A bit incoherent but I do think, potentially, the stylistic moves he was making in Licorice Pizza could translate to box office, and hitching that wagon to Leo is about as safe a bet as any, as far as it goes. There’s a lot of other “BIG IFS” that would have to go right in ways that LP went wrong, but imo there is a cautious optimism lurking somewhere inside me. Alas… after four straight movies that scan as “weird” to the Average Joes in my life, another part of me has a hard time seeing him ever returning to making more populist films. Time will tell!
That's not really accurate, though. People certainly have always liked/still like Phantom Thread a lot more than Licorice Pizza, which ultimately turned a lot of people off.
I remember feeling like, for the people who liked it, many of them had a straight forward enjoyment of Licorice Pizza that was warm/fuzzy/nostalgic/pleasant/nice. Whereas Phantom Thread was more mysterious, more challenging, even for big fans. Phantom Thread is, in my opinion, the vastly superior film. But I do not claim to have flawless analysis. I’m merely posting some of my individual thoughts and feelings in the spirit of generosity and cuz I love cinema.
It's his best chance but it's probably also his last chance. If he can't get a hit with DiCaprio in the lead, then it's never going to happen (unless he can get DiCaprio to work with him again, but that likely only happens if this one does well).
I don't know what to predict. The problem is that the only thing this seems to have to sell to mainstream audiences is that DiCaprio is in it. So the question is, can Leo single-handedly make this a hit? If he does, then it'll certainly be his biggest accomplishment movie star/box office wise.
I just don't really see this being much more commercial than something like KOTFM, which I think would've done okay with full theatrical backing behind it. Could be wrong of course, but especially after Licorice Pizza, which, in my opinion, was him (and MGM) going for what they clearly hoped would be his absolute most accessible one yet, and still ended up being miles away from something even remotely resembling a mult-hundred-million-dollar theatrical run?
Not sure if he's ever capable of compromising his vision for the sake of a wider audience. It's why we love him, and I don't think it's a problem so long as studios value his films for what they are, but it's gonna have to really be a new frontier for him to truly break out in that sort of mainstream way. But we know if anyone's gonna help do it, it's Leo.
(Aside: I love Licorice Pizza. I think it's a really interesting look at what gets a box office and what doesn't, considering it's all there on paper -- hollywood, coming of age, period piece, good support/advertising -- but the finished product is still just such a weird, uncompromising first viewing that it still comes out with the same lukewarm box office fate as most of his other films. I don't think the main trailer did it any favors.)
I think LP is proof that he's just not really in tune with audiences. I'm sure he intended LP to be a charming hit (or maybe not. Part of me also thinks he was deliberately provoking/trolling but I'm in the camp that thinks LP is some of his weakest work) but instead it ended being his most controversial film. I've said it before but he should be allowed anywhere near the marketing. He's just not good at it. Just let the studio take care of it.
I can't see Leo signing on to a film with zero commercial prospects so I can only guess what that'd be. But nothing that I've heard sounds commercial. Especially not if it's Pynchonesque.
It's a mystery as to why, say, Yorgos Lanthimos last 2 films have been hits but PTA just can't seem to get that for himself. He's never worked with Fox Searchlight, who are the best right now at making more offbeat films appeal to people so maybe he should try working with them.
Well, LP came out to immediate acclaim and multiple ATL nominations, so he’s clearly in tune with some audiences. Also not sure if a few tweets and Letterboxd reviews make it a more controversial movie than Boogie Nights was at release, but yeah.
If he wants a bigger box office, the things that will aid in that don’t seem out of reach. I can start with two ideas: let people know what the movie is and that it exists sometime BEFORE 2-3 months prior to release, and make some trailers that clearly deliver an idea of what the movie is actually about.
Anticipation and clarity go a long way.
Most of that acclaim for LP seemed to come in the first wave before most people saw it. Then when people saw it the praise dropped considerably. By the Oscars (where it kind of tanked in the nominations, only getting 3 where it was predicted to get plenty more), it felt like more people disliked it (the "honest Oscar ballots" were brutal) than liked it. And still feels that way today (though it also feels mostly forgotten already).
Agreed completely with that. WB should've already released an official still of Leo in character to get the hype started and to get the word out. And just say what the title is (he seems to really struggle with titles these days).
I'm not so sure about the extent to which he intended it to be charming, to be honest. I kind of struggle to see why he would have made a point of displaying racism/sexism/homophobia/inappropriate age gaps/etc. if the goal was to make something that would merely appeal to as wide an audience as possible.
In that sense, it feels deliberately anti-nostalgia, or at least against a certain type of nostalgia that sets out to idealize the past to an absolute degree. I think he definitely intends for Gary to be charming or engaging, but that time and place? Not as much, I'd say, even if there's undoubtedly a certain longing for it (some parts of it anyway). That's just my reading though.
I'm referring to Alana and Gary's relationship, which he clearly wants to be charming. I think he was intending an Almost Famous type of thing and thought that this would grab audiences but something got lost and that didn't happen.
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So far, yes, but it was still AGI's followup Best Picture winning film (which had done well at the box office as did Babel). This time, DiCaprio is working with a director who's never made a film that's grossed at least $100m at the box office. So, if he can make this a hit then it's definitely his most impressive feat.
Movie going audiences had no idea who inarittu was.
He had just won the Best Director Oscar. They've known who he was since 21 Grams probably.
If it’s critically and audience acclaimed I can see it doing big numbers 150-300 million range.
But I’m expecting like 80ish, wait till trailer and reviews. Do we know if Leo is the lead or co lead yet? Feel like he does put people in theaters almost more than anyone else if he’s got a big role in the film
Leo guarantees 100 million no matter what. 200 million if it's marketed for a wide audience.
I honestly don’t think Paul thinks or cares about box office. He makes what he makes. And then it makes what it makes. If the budget numbers are accurate then imho this picture is a huge success if it makes its money back and no one loses any cash. That being best case scenario.
Yeah, same. The thing that makes PTA unique, and why he has the reputation he has, is that he is a true auteur with a personal vision who follows his impulses. He makes challenging and idiosyncratic films. I hope that he continues to do so. I'm excited that he is making a big and ambitious project, and I hope the film does well so that he and everyone else involved can make their money back, but I hope he isn't trying to pander to an audience just to get a "hit." That would be a zero-sum game in my opinion.